Clermont Foot 1–2 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Saint Etienne

A. Camblan 43'

L. Stassin 62'

A. Boakye 52'

9/13/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Clermont Foot39%

×Draw27%

Saint Etienne34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Clermont Foot

1.27

Saint Etienne

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 55 away

1.31

creates per match

1.33

1.03

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.03

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

66%

Clermont Foot or Saint Etienne

73%

Draw or Saint Etienne

61%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

17%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

72%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

36%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

69%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

33%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

53%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

39%

level

27%

Saint Etienne scores more

34%

Clermont Foot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

I. Cardona

Saint Etienne · F

7.6

Match Events

31'

A. Baallal← J. Astic

43'

A. Camblan

46'

I. Miladinovic← L. Gadegbeku

46'

L. Stassin← B. Old

47'

Maxime Bernauer

52'

A. Boakye↳ L. Stassin

57'

Cheick Konaté

62'

L. Stassin↳ I. Cardona

67'

H. Saivet← I. Fakili

67'

A. Hunou← J. Gastien

80'

N. El Jamali← A. Boakye

81'

M. Donavin← Y. Salmier

81'

I. Coulibaly← K. Bamba

88'

L. Socka Bongue← A. Said

88'

J. Duffus← I. Cardona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontSaint

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots15

2Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots15

2On Target6

6Off Target7

4Blocked2

2Inside Box8

10Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

398Total Passes525

327Accurate Passes451

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1