Clermont Foot 1–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 1

Saint Etienne

7/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Charles Massot 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Clermont Foot62%

×Draw24%

Saint Etienne14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.61

Clermont Foot

1.61

Saint Etienne

0.61

Clermont Foot creates 164% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

0.67

0.56

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.22

Saint Etienne

0.67

allows per match

Clermont Foot

0.56

Saint Etienne

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

86%

Clermont Foot or Saint Etienne

76%

Draw or Saint Etienne

38%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

34%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

80%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

48%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

22%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

46%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

13%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

82%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.22 + Saint Etienne defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Saint Etienne attack 0.67 + Clermont Foot defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

62%

level

24%

Saint Etienne scores more

14%

Clermont Foot at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Clermont4-2-3-1

Saint4-3-3

Cafaro

Sissoko

Agesilas

Sahraoui

Mouton

Makhloufi

Kabeya

Manager: P. Gastien

Clermont Foot substitutes

BorneM'BahiaTraoréDonavinAckraMagninDialloFakiliToure

Manager: O. Dall’Oglio

Saint Etienne substitutes

BatubinsikaPedroMaçonGauthierMoutonOthmanWadji

Friendlies Clubs: Clermont Foot 1–1 Saint Etienne

Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charles Massot 2 in Le Puy En Velay.

Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Clermont Foot 1–1 Saint Etienne