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Rubin vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Rubin
Rubin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamo
11/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rubin31%
×Draw28%
Dynamo41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.08
Dynamo
1.29

Dynamo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.05
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Rubin
1.00
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
59%
Rubin or Dynamo
72%
Draw or Dynamo
69%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
12%
Dynamo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
66%
Rubin 2+ goals
29%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%
Dynamo 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo 2+ goals
37%
Dynamo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
43%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.05 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Rubin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rubin scores more
31%
level
28%
Dynamo scores more
41%

Dynamo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
A. ArroyoRubinRubin · D
7.6

Match Events

36'
Juan Cáceres
45+1'
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
46'
D. Kabutov← I. Rozhkov
51'
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
58'
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
58'
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
62'
D. Skopintsev← Rubens
62'
A. Kutitsky← D. Fomin
68'
V. Hodza← R. Bezrukov
74'
Aleksandr Kutitskiy
77'
Daniil Glebov
81'
E. Maouhoub← U. Babaev
81'
I. Sergeev← K. Tyukavin
85'
V. Okishor← D. Glebov
87'
Mirlind Daku
90+2'
B. Jocic← D. Shabanhaxhaj
90+5'
O. Ivanov← U. Iwu

Possession

33%Rubin

Shots

7Rubin

Pass accuracy

45%Rubin

Statistics

RubinDynamo
Overview
33%Possession67%
7Total Shots15
0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.31
3Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots15
2On Target4
3Off Target7
2Blocked4
2Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
33%Possession67%
281Total Passes574
194Accurate Passes482
69%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rubin vs Dynamo

Rubin and Dynamo drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 1, 2025.

Dynamo controlled possession (67%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan.