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Dinamo Moscow vs Rubin — Premier League 2022

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
K. Tyukavin 25'
12/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dinamo Moscow50%
×Draw24%
Rubin26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.67
Rubin
1.13

Dinamo Moscow creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.93
Rubin
1.04

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.22
Rubin
1.40

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
74%
Dinamo Moscow or Rubin
76%
Draw or Rubin
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
27%
Rubin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
23%
Rubin 1+ goals
68%
Rubin 2+ goals
31%
Rubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
66%
Rubin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.93 + Rubin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rubin attack 1.04 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
50%
level
24%
Rubin scores more
26%

Dinamo Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89
BitelloDinamo MoscowDinamo Moscow · F
8.2

Match Events

2'
Aleksandr Martynovich
25'
K. Tyukavin↳ D. Skopintsev
65'
L. Gagnidze← D. Laxalt
65'
F. Smolov← K. Tyukavin
79'
A. Lomovitskiy← N. Čumić
86'
N. Marichal← J. Carrascal
86'
D. Makarov← Bitello
90+5'
Y. Gladyshev← M. Ngamaleu
90'
J. Fameyeh← A. Martynovich

Possession

53%Dinamo

Shots

14Dinamo

Pass accuracy

51%Dinamo

Statistics

DinamoRubin
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots13
1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.14
2Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots13
6On Target3
5Off Target8
3Blocked2
9Inside Box10
5Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
522Total Passes448
440Accurate Passes364
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Rubin

Dinamo Moscow beat Rubin 1-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2023.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (25').

Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.