Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dynamo vs Rubin — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rubin
Rubin
J. Siwe 19'
4/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dynamo50%
×Draw24%
Rubin26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.71
Rubin
1.15

Dynamo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.17
Rubin
0.95

allows per match

Dynamo
1.34
Rubin
1.26

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
74%
Dynamo or Rubin
76%
Draw or Rubin
50%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
27%
Rubin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
82%
Dynamo 2+ goals
51%
Dynamo 3+ goals
24%
Rubin 1+ goals
68%
Rubin 2+ goals
32%
Rubin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
66%
Rubin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Rubin away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.17 + Rubin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rubin attack 0.95 + Dynamo defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamo scores more
50%
level
24%
Rubin scores more
26%

Dynamo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

57
David RicardoDynamoDynamo · D
8.0

Match Events

19'
J. Siwe↳ N. Gripshi
26'
Denil Maldonado
42'
Nicolás Marichal
52'
T. Marinkin← D. Glebov
52'
Arthur Gomes← Y. Gladyshev
64'
L. Chavez← D. Fomin
64'
I. Sergeev← A. Miranchuk
68'
D. Kuznetsov← N. Gripshi
68'
D. Kuzyaev← R. Bezrukov
74'
U. Babaev← Bitello
77'
D. N. Motorin← J. Siwe
87'
D. Kabutov← I. Saavedra
87'
K. Nizhegorodov← I. Rozhkov

Possession

63%Dynamo

Shots

14Dynamo

Pass accuracy

55%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoRubin
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots13
8Corners7
14Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots13
3On Target5
8Off Target5
3Blocked3
6Inside Box9
8Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
544Total Passes322
459Accurate Passes220
84%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Premier League: Dynamo 0–1 Rubin

Rubin beat Dynamo 1-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Siwe (19').

Dynamo controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.