Rubin 0–4 Dynamo: Result & Stats | Premier League

Rubin

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Dynamo

Y. Gladyshev 88'

F. Balbuena 62'

Arthur Gomes 38' (pen)

K. Tyukavin 4' (pen)

10/20/2024

Premier League · Round 12Stadion Nizhny Novgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rubin34%

×Draw26%

Dynamo40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RubinExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.39

Rubin

1.26

Dynamo

1.39

Dynamo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

1.22

creates per match

1.66

1.11

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Rubin

1.22

Dynamo

1.66

allows per match

Rubin

1.11

Dynamo

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rubin or draw

60%

Rubin or Dynamo

74%

Draw or Dynamo

66%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+

15%

Dynamo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals

72%

Rubin 2+ goals

36%

Rubin 3+ goals

13%

Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo 2+ goals

40%

Dynamo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)

46%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.22 + Dynamo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dynamo attack 1.66 + Rubin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rubin scores more

34%

level

26%

Dynamo scores more

40%

Dynamo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

N. Marichal

Dynamo · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

K. TyukavinPenalty

35'

Bitello

36'

BitelloPenalty confirmed

38'

Arthur GomesPenalty

39'

Aleksandr Zotov

39'

K. Nizhegorodov← E. Mukba

42'

Nikola Čumić

46'

O. Ivanov← N. Čumić

46'

V. Vada← A. Zotov

62'

F. Balbuena↳ L. Chávez

69'

E. Maouhoub← K. Tyukavin

70'

J. Carrascal← Bitello

75'

Arthur Gomes

77'

Dmitriy Kabutov

78'

Y. Gladyshev← Arthur Gomes

78'

D. Makarov← N. Ngamaleu

80'

Ilya Rozhkov

80'

D. Skopintsev← F. Balbuena

85'

Oleg Ivanov

88'

Y. Gladyshev↳ J. Carrascal

90+1'

R. Bezrukov← D. Kabutov

90+1'

D. Shabanhaxhaj← J. Fameyeh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RubinDynamo

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots15

5Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots15

1On Target7

10Off Target5

8Blocked3

13Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

410Total Passes473

326Accurate Passes367

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Rubin vs Dynamo

Dynamo beat Rubin 4-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

Goals: K. Tyukavin (4' pen), Arthur Gomes (38' pen), F. Balbuena (62'), Y. Gladyshev (88').

Dynamo controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Nizhniy Novgorod.

Rubin vs Dynamo — Premier League 2023

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rubin vs Dynamo