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Dynamo vs Rubin — Premier League 2023

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rubin
Rubin
Bitello 90+9'
Y. Gladyshev 61', 23'
R. Bezrukov 25'
4/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dynamo52%
×Draw24%
Rubin24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.71
Rubin
1.10

Dynamo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.02
Rubin
1.04

allows per match

Dynamo
1.17
Rubin
1.40

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
76%
Dynamo or Rubin
76%
Draw or Rubin
48%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
28%
Rubin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
82%
Dynamo 2+ goals
51%
Dynamo 3+ goals
24%
Rubin 1+ goals
67%
Rubin 2+ goals
30%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
68%
Rubin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.17 · 47 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.02 + Rubin defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rubin attack 1.04 + Dynamo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo scores more
52%
level
24%
Rubin scores more
24%

Dynamo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91
Y. GladyshevDynamoDynamo · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
Egor Teslenko
9'
Mirlind Daku
19'
V. Vada← B. Jočić
23'
Y. Gladyshev↳ J. Cáceres
25'
R. Bezrukov↳ M. Daku
33'
Ugochukwu Iwu
57'
N. Čumić← D. Shabanhaxhaj
61'
Y. Gladyshev
65'
A. Zotov← U. Iwu
66'
O. Ivanov← V. Hodža
69'
N. Ngamaleu← D. Laxalt
72'
El Mehdi MaouhoubPenalty cancelled
80'
Valentín Vada
88'
D. Makarov← E. Maouhoub
89'
R. Fernández← D. Skopintsev
90'
Mirlind Daku
90'
Mirlind Daku
90+9'
Bitello↳ N. Ngamaleu

Possession

60%Dynamo

Shots

16Dynamo

Pass accuracy

54%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoRubin
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots10
10Corners6
7Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots10
7On Target5
6Off Target1
3Blocked4
9Inside Box9
7Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
442Total Passes293
358Accurate Passes205
81%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Dynamo vs Rubin

Dynamo beat Rubin 3-1 in Premier League on April 20, 2025.

Goals: Y. Gladyshev (23', 61'), R. Bezrukov (25'), Bitello (90+9').

Dynamo controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.