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Roda vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
J. Schwirten 54'
8/15/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Roda46%
×Draw21%
De Graafschap33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
2.14
De Graafschap
1.79

Roda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Roda
2.04
De Graafschap
1.88

allows per match

Roda
1.70
De Graafschap
2.24

finishing

Roda-0.90scores less
De Graafschap-0.18scores less

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Roda or draw
67%
Roda or De Graafschap
79%
Draw or De Graafschap
54%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
27%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
88%
Roda 2+ goals
63%
Roda 3+ goals
36%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
83%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
53%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
58%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 2.04 + De Graafschap defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.14

De Graafschap attack 1.88 + Roda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roda scores more
46%
level
21%
De Graafschap scores more
33%

Roda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. TreichelRodaRoda · G
8.3

Match Events

47'
Dario Van Den Buijs
54'
J. Schwirten↳ C. Seedorf
67'
M. Paulissen← J. Schwirten
67'
L. Maiorano← C. Seedorf
68'
K. Jansen← T. Kother
71'
B. Boersma← D. Theodoridis
74'
J. Cooper-Love← A. van den Hurk
80'
N. Kaninda← J. Simons
80'
K. Symons← M. Smits
81'
Luca Maiorano
90+5'
Teun Gijselhart
90+2'
Stijn Bultman

Possession

41%Roda

Shots

14Roda

Pass accuracy

48%Roda

Statistics

RodaDe
Overview
41%Possession59%
14Total Shots14
1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.29
5Corners9
11Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots14
6On Target5
6Off Target6
2Blocked3
9Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
308Total Passes429
242Accurate Passes369
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Roda 1–0 De Graafschap

Roda beat De Graafschap 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Schwirten (54').

De Graafschap controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.