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De Graafschap vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Roda
Roda
R. Niemeijer 29'
B. Boersma 6'
J. Cooper-Love 90'
I. Griffith 58'
A. van den Hurk 51'
12/12/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

De Graafschap44%
×Draw21%
Roda35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
2.03
Roda
1.79

De Graafschap creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
2.44
Roda
2.29

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.28
Roda
1.62

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less
Roda-0.54scores less

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
65%
De Graafschap or Roda
79%
Draw or Roda
56%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
25%
Roda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
87%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
60%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
33%
Roda 1+ goals
83%
Roda 2+ goals
53%
Roda 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
56%
Roda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Roda away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + Roda defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.03

Roda attack 2.29 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

De Graafschap scores more
44%
level
21%
Roda scores more
35%

De Graafschap at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
I. GriffithRodaRoda · M
8.5

Match Events

6'
B. Boersma↳ A. van der Heide
29'
R. Niemeijer↳ I. El Kadiri
51'
A. van den Hurk↳ M. Breij
56'
Koen Jansen
58'
I. Griffith↳ A. van den Hurk
66'
M. Smits← F. de Jong
70'
L. Schoppema← K. Symons
70'
J. Simons← I. El Kadiri
77'
L. Maiorano← C. Seedorf
84'
D. Theodoridis← A. van der Heide
89'
J. Cooper-Love← A. van den Hurk
90'
J. Cooper-Love↳ I. Griffith

Possession

53%De

Shots

17De

Pass accuracy

50%De

Statistics

DeRoda
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots17
7Corners4
14Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots17
7On Target9
6Off Target5
4Blocked3
10Inside Box14
7Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
418Total Passes363
343Accurate Passes300
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: De Graafschap vs Roda

Roda beat De Graafschap 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on December 12, 2025.

Goals: B. Boersma (6'), R. Niemeijer (29'), A. van den Hurk (51'), I. Griffith (58'), J. Cooper-Love (90').

De Graafschap controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.