Roda 1–1 De Graafschap: Result & Stats

Roda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

De Graafschap

E. Peña Zauner 4'

M. Willemsen 85'

4/19/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 35Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Roda47%

×Draw21%

De Graafschap32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodaExpected goals in this matchDe Graafschap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.71

Roda

2.08

De Graafschap

1.71

Roda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.04

creates per match

1.73

1.70

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Roda

2.04

De Graafschap

1.73

allows per match

Roda

1.70

De Graafschap

2.13

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Roda-0.90scores less

De Graafschap-0.06on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

De Graafschap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Roda or draw

68%

Roda or De Graafschap

79%

Draw or De Graafschap

53%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+

27%

De Graafschap wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals

87%

Roda 2+ goals

61%

Roda 3+ goals

34%

De Graafschap 1+ goals

82%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

51%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)

59%

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 2.04 + De Graafschap defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

De Graafschap attack 1.73 + Roda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Roda scores more

47%

level

21%

De Graafschap scores more

32%

Roda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Ouaissa

Roda · M

7.6

Match Events

4'

E. Peña Zauner↳ S. Ouaissa

14'

Philip Brittijn

46'

D. Haen← R. Seuntjens

71'

L. Daneels← E. Peña Zauner

74'

D. Flakus Bosilj← P. Brittijn

74'

T. van Gilst← D. Warmerdam

84'

Boyd Reith

85'

M. Willemsen↳ A. Büttner

88'

O. Džepar← A. van der Heide

88'

S. Wevers← Jeffry Fortes

88'

G. Büttner← L. Kaak

90+2'

David Flakus Bosilj

90+1'

M. Bangura← V. Sejk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodaDe

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots12

5Corners8

10Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target5

5Off Target6

7Blocked1

9Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

380Total Passes432

276Accurate Passes334

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3