De Graafschap 2–0 Roda: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Roda

J. Cooper-Love 64'

R. Niemeijer 25'

4/6/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 33Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

De Graafschap44%

×Draw21%

Roda35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchRoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.79

De Graafschap

2.03

Roda

1.79

De Graafschap creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.44

creates per match

2.29

1.28

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

De Graafschap

2.44

Roda

2.29

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.28

Roda

1.62

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

De Graafschap-0.31scores less

Roda-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Roda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

65%

De Graafschap or Roda

79%

Draw or Roda

56%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

25%

Roda wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

87%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

60%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

33%

Roda 1+ goals

83%

Roda 2+ goals

53%

Roda 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

56%

Roda (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Roda away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 2.44 + Roda defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.03

Roda attack 2.29 + De Graafschap defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

De Graafschap scores more

44%

level

21%

Roda scores more

35%

De Graafschap at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Schoppema

De Graafschap · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

Jeffrey Fortes

25'

R. Niemeijer

42'

Wesley Spieringhs

46'

I. Griffith← P. Sejdiu

46'

K. Razak← Z. Vancsa

64'

J. Cooper-Love↳ A. van der Heide

65'

I. El Kadiri← Wanya Marçal

65'

R. Seuntjens← J. Cooper-Love

67'

J. Schwirten← R. Leijten

76'

M. Bangura← M. Breij

76'

L. Beerten← W. Spieringhs

80'

J. van de Haar← A. van der Heide

80'

T. van Gilst← R. Niemeijer

85'

P. Brittijn← D. Warmerdam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeRoda

Overview

65%Possession35%

21Total Shots5

7Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots5

7On Target1

10Off Target4

4Blocked0

17Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

540Total Passes303

464Accurate Passes225

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5