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Roda vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
T. Baeten 36'
I. El Kadiri 90+2'
Jeffry Fortes 83' (pen)
T. van Gilst 68'
J. van de Haar 18'
9/1/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Roda47%
×Draw21%
De Graafschap32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
2.08
De Graafschap
1.71

Roda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Roda
2.04
De Graafschap
1.73

allows per match

Roda
1.70
De Graafschap
2.13

finishing

Roda-0.90scores less
De Graafschap-0.06on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Roda or draw
68%
Roda or De Graafschap
79%
Draw or De Graafschap
53%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
27%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
87%
Roda 2+ goals
61%
Roda 3+ goals
34%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
82%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
51%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
59%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 2.04 + De Graafschap defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

De Graafschap attack 1.73 + Roda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Roda scores more
47%
level
21%
De Graafschap scores more
32%

Roda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Jeffry FortesDe GraafschapDe Graafschap · D
8.3

Match Events

15'
Anass Najah
18'
J. van de Haar↳ I. El Kadiri
36'
T. Baeten↳ E. Peña Zauner
37'
Levi Schoppema
46'
K. Jansen← B. Koglin
46'
I. Griffith← P. Sejdiu
46'
P. Brittijn← A. Najah
48'
Rowan Besselink
57'
R. Seuntjens← J. van de Haar
57'
K. Symons← L. Schoppema
62'
S. Krawczyk← R. Leijten
64'
Rodney Kongolo
67'
M. Mahi← S. Bisselink
68'
T. van Gilst↳ Jeffry Fortes
70'
Y. Eduardo← T. van Gilst
76'
M. Bangura← R. Kongolo
76'
O. Džepar← L. Beerten
79'
Rio Hillen
83'
Jeffry FortesPenalty
90+2'
I. El Kadiri↳ Y. Eduardo

Possession

47%Roda

Shots

10Roda

Pass accuracy

49%Roda

Statistics

RodaDe
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots15
4Corners0
11Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots15
5On Target7
4Off Target7
1Blocked1
6Inside Box11
4Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
407Total Passes469
316Accurate Passes385
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards4
4Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Roda 1–4 De Graafschap

De Graafschap beat Roda 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 1, 2024.

Goals: J. van de Haar (18'), T. Baeten (36'), T. van Gilst (68'), Jeffry Fortes (83' pen), I. El Kadiri (90+2').

De Graafschap controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.