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Rizespor vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Rizespor
Rizespor
Preview
17:00
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
9/6/2026League #203League #203 · Round 4
Big match
48%
Rizespor
model favours
48%25%27%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Rizespor48%
×Draw25%
Alanyaspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
1.57
Alanyaspor
1.11

Rizespor creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rizespor
1.66
Alanyaspor
0.93

allows per match

Rizespor
1.30
Alanyaspor
1.49

finishing

Rizespor-0.13scores less
Alanyaspor+0.07on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
73%
Rizespor or Alanyaspor
75%
Draw or Alanyaspor
52%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
25%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
79%
Rizespor 2+ goals
46%
Rizespor 3+ goals
21%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
67%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
30%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
64%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.49 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.66 + Alanyaspor defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Alanyaspor attack 0.93 + Rizespor defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rizespor scores more
48%
level
25%
Alanyaspor scores more
27%

Rizespor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rizespor
Balanced
Alanyaspor
Balanced
47%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy82%
12.2Shots12.3
1.31xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RizesporAlanyaspor

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Rizespor
3
Draws
5
Alanyaspor
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
1–10–03–10–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rizespor
DDDWL
Alanyaspor
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rizespor face Alanyaspor (League #203)

League #203 returns with Rizespor hosting Alanyaspor. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.