Rizespor 1–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Rizespor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alanyaspor

V. Mihaila 80'

S. Mounie 89'

1/25/2026

League #203 · Round 19Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rizespor46%

×Draw25%

Alanyaspor29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RizesporExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.17

Rizespor

1.54

Alanyaspor

1.17

Rizespor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.59

creates per match

0.93

1.41

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Rizespor

1.59

Alanyaspor

0.93

allows per match

Rizespor

1.41

Alanyaspor

1.49

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Rizespor-0.13scores less

Alanyaspor+0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw

71%

Rizespor or Alanyaspor

75%

Draw or Alanyaspor

54%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+

23%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals

79%

Rizespor 2+ goals

45%

Rizespor 3+ goals

20%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

69%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

33%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)

61%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.41 · 13 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.49 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.59 + Alanyaspor defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Alanyaspor attack 0.93 + Rizespor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rizespor scores more

46%

level

25%

Alanyaspor scores more

29%

Rizespor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Mounie

Alanyaspor · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

21'

43'

43'

45'

46'

61'

V. Mihaila← L. Augusto

66'

Qazim LaciGoal cancelled

67'

F. Aksoy← N. Lima

72'

72'

72'

72'

80'

84'

T. Antalyali← I. Olawoyin

85'

H. Dervisoglu← A. Sowe

85'

M. Elia← U. Akdag

87'

87'

89'

90+3'

90+1'

Steve MouniéGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RizesporAlanyaspor

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots23

0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.28

4Corners8

14Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots23

3On Target3

2Off Target12

1Blocked8

2Inside Box12

4Outside Box11

Passing

37%Possession63%

258Total Passes440

208Accurate Passes397

81%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1