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Rizespor vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Rizespor
Rizespor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor
I. Olawoyin 85'
A. Sowe 71'
R. Ghezzal 46'
A. Šporar 65' (pen)
3/2/2025League #203League #203 · Round 26Çaykur Didi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Rizespor48%
×Draw25%
Alanyaspor27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rizespor
1.63
Alanyaspor
1.17

Rizespor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rizespor
1.69
Alanyaspor
0.91

allows per match

Rizespor
1.42
Alanyaspor
1.56

finishing

Rizespor-0.19scores less
Alanyaspor+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rizespor ↓

Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rizespor or draw
73%
Rizespor or Alanyaspor
75%
Draw or Alanyaspor
52%

Winning margin

Rizespor wins by 2+
25%
Alanyaspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rizespor 1+ goals
80%
Rizespor 2+ goals
48%
Rizespor 3+ goals
22%
Alanyaspor 1+ goals
69%
Alanyaspor 2+ goals
33%
Alanyaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rizespor (draw refunded)
64%
Alanyaspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rizespor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rizespor attack 1.69 + Alanyaspor defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Alanyaspor attack 0.91 + Rizespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rizespor scores more
48%
level
25%
Alanyaspor scores more
27%

Rizespor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rizespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. GhezzalRizesporRizespor · M
8.0

Match Events

43'
Ibrahim Olawoyin
46'
R. Ghezzal↳ T. Şahin
63'
Sergio CórdovaPenalty confirmed
65'
A. ŠporarPenalty
71'
A. Sowe↳ R. Ghezzal
72'
B. Özcan← H. Aliqulov
73'
A. Zeqiri← D. Akintola
75'
Attila Mocsi
78'
E. Karaca← N. Janvier
81'
M. Buljubašić← D. Varešanović
85'
I. Olawoyin↳ B. Özcan
90+2'
Fatih Aksoy
90+3'
M. Pala← I. Olawoyin
90+3'
A. Ömür← R. Ghezzal

Possession

52%Rizespor

Shots

10Rizespor

Pass accuracy

51%Rizespor

Statistics

RizesporAlanyaspor
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots12
1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.22
5Corners5
17Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots12
5On Target4
3Off Target5
2Blocked3
7Inside Box6
3Outside Box6
Passing
52%Possession48%
373Total Passes336
300Accurate Passes260
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-0.33Goals Prevented-0.33
Discipline
17Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor

Rizespor beat Alanyaspor 3-1 in League #203 on March 2, 2025.

Goals: R. Ghezzal (46'), A. Šporar (65' pen), A. Sowe (71'), I. Olawoyin (85').

Rizespor controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Rize.