Alanyaspor 0–0 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rizespor

8/16/2025

League #203 · Round 2GAİN Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Alanyaspor43%

×Draw27%

Rizespor30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.09

Alanyaspor

1.35

Rizespor

1.09

Alanyaspor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

0.93

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.08

Rizespor

0.93

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.25

Rizespor

1.62

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor-0.01on par

Rizespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

70%

Alanyaspor or Rizespor

73%

Draw or Rizespor

57%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

20%

Rizespor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

74%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

39%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

15%

Rizespor 1+ goals

66%

Rizespor 2+ goals

30%

Rizespor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

59%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 14 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.08 + Rizespor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rizespor attack 0.93 + Alanyaspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

43%

level

27%

Rizespor scores more

30%

Alanyaspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Olawoyin

Rizespor · M

8.2

Match Events

37'

62'

65'

74'

75'

80'

V. Mihaila← H. Dervisoglu

87'

Ali Sowe

88'

I. Kaya← Hwang Ui-Jo

88'

E. Keskin← F. Hadergjonaj

88'

A. Mocsi← C. Hojer

90+3'

M. Buljubasic← Q. Laci

90+3'

E. Bulut← A. Sowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporRizespor

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots7

0.45Expected Goals (xG)1.39

3Corners1

22Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots7

1On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked0

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes504

294Accurate Passes432

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

22Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1