Alanyaspor 2–1 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rizespor

P. Sisto 90+1'

E. Karaca 70'

D. Varešanović 51'

1/20/2024

League #203 · Round 21Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Alanyaspor44%

×Draw26%

Rizespor29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Alanyaspor

1.42

Rizespor

1.10

Alanyaspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.16

creates per match

0.95

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.16

Rizespor

0.95

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.25

Rizespor

1.67

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Alanyaspor-0.03on par

Rizespor-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

71%

Alanyaspor or Rizespor

74%

Draw or Rizespor

56%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

21%

Rizespor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

76%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

41%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

17%

Rizespor 1+ goals

67%

Rizespor 2+ goals

30%

Rizespor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

60%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 15 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.16 + Rizespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rizespor attack 0.95 + Alanyaspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

44%

level

26%

Rizespor scores more

29%

Alanyaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Fer

Alanyaspor · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

João Novais

51'

D. Varešanović↳ C. Højer

64'

P. Sisto← S. Córdova

64'

N. Janvier← Y. Özdemir

67'

Gustavo Sauer← B. Keser

70'

E. Karaca↳ O. Aydın

78'

Efecan KaracaGoal confirmed

80'

Fidan Aliti

86'

Óscar Pinchi← D. Varešanović

89'

Leroy Fer

90+2'

Jure Balkovec

90+5'

F. Bayır← E. Karaca

90+9'

F. Aksoy← João Novais

90+4'

M. Minchev← M. Pala

90+4'

M. Faye← A. Zeqiri

90+1'

P. Sisto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporRizespor

Overview

56%Possession44%

23Total Shots17

2.31Expected Goals (xG)1.31

8Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots17

6On Target4

10Off Target7

7Blocked6

14Inside Box8

9Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

445Total Passes361

367Accurate Passes273

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

4Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1

League #203: Alanyaspor 2–1 Rizespor

Alanyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 in League #203 on January 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Varešanović (51'), E. Karaca (70'), P. Sisto (90+1').

Alanyaspor controlled possession (56%) and registered 23 shots to 17.

The match was played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Alanya.

Alanyaspor vs Rizespor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Alanyaspor 2–1 Rizespor