Alanyaspor 1–0 Rizespor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rizespor

N. Janvier 33'

9/28/2024

League #203 · Round 7GAIN Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Alanyaspor45%

×Draw27%

Rizespor28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchRizespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Alanyaspor

1.42

Rizespor

1.06

Alanyaspor creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

0.89

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.13

Rizespor

0.89

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.24

Rizespor

1.71

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.02on par

Rizespor+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Rizespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

72%

Alanyaspor or Rizespor

73%

Draw or Rizespor

55%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

22%

Rizespor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

76%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

41%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

17%

Rizespor 1+ goals

65%

Rizespor 2+ goals

29%

Rizespor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

62%

Rizespor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Rizespor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.13 + Rizespor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rizespor attack 0.89 + Alanyaspor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

45%

level

27%

Rizespor scores more

28%

Alanyaspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Nuno Lima

Alanyaspor · D

8.2

Match Events

16'

S. Córdova← Hwang Ui-Jo

33'

N. Janvier↳ Loide Augusto

38'

40'

48'

58'

66'

İ. Pehlivan← C. Højer

66'

V. Jurečka← D. Varešanović

66'

R. Ghezzal← G. Papanikolaou

69'

E. Karaca← N. Janvier

82'

M. Pala← A. Hadžiahmetović

86'

Ertuğrul Taşkıran

88'

B. Bulut← Loide Augusto

90+5'

Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan

90+5'

Rachid Ghezzal

90+9'

Václav JurečkaGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporRizespor

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots11

1.06Expected Goals (xG)1.52

7Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target2

4Off Target5

6Blocked4

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

401Total Passes501

339Accurate Passes425

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

League #203: Alanyaspor 1–0 Rizespor

Alanyaspor beat Rizespor 1-0 in League #203 on September 28, 2024.

Goals: N. Janvier (33').

Rizespor controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at GAIN Park Stadium in Antalya.

Alanyaspor vs Rizespor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Alanyaspor 1–0 Rizespor