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QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
Preview
15:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
1/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Loftus Road
Big match
43%
QPR
model favours
43%28%29%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw28%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.31
Birmingham
1.02

QPR creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

creates per match

QPR
1.29
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

QPR
1.09
Birmingham
1.32

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
64%
Birmingham 2+ goals
27%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.29 + Birmingham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Birmingham attack 0.95 + QPR defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
QPR
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
48%Possession46%
75%Pass accuracy69%
11.9Shots11.9
1.04xGBiggest gap1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
QPRBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
QPR
2
Draws
4
Birmingham
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
0–12–12–10–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
QPR
WWDLL
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

QPR vs Birmingham — Match Preview

QPR face Birmingham on January 16, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

QPR host Birmingham at Loftus Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.