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Birmingham vs QPR — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
P. Roberts 6'
3/11/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham49%
×Draw27%
QPR24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.42
QPR
0.89

Birmingham creates 60% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Birmingham
0.99
QPR
1.22

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
76%
Birmingham or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
24%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham 3+ goals
17%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
68%
QPR (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + QPR defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

QPR attack 0.79 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more
49%
level
27%
QPR scores more
24%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
P. RobertsBirminghamBirmingham · M
8.6

Match Events

6'
P. Roberts↳ I. Osman
24'
Ibrahim Osman
45'
Ethan Laird
46'
R. Kolli← K. Saito
46'
K. Morgan← J. Varane
58'
R. Norrington-Davies← S. Cook
65'
D. Gray← I. Osman
65'
J. Panzo← E. Laird
70'
K. Poku← P. Smyth
76'
K. Fujimoto← M. Ducksch
76'
C. Vicente← P. Roberts
79'
I. Hayden← J. Clarke-Salter
81'
James Beadle
90+7'
Demarai Gray
90+2'
K. Furuhashi← J. Stansfield

Possession

59%Birmingham

Shots

21Birmingham

Pass accuracy

52%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamQPR
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots10
1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.37
10Corners1
9Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots10
6On Target1
9Off Target5
6Blocked4
16Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
511Total Passes363
430Accurate Passes281
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.03Goals Prevented0.03
Discipline
9Fouls9
4Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Birmingham vs QPR

Birmingham beat QPR 1-0 in Championship on March 11, 2026.

Goals: P. Roberts (6').

Birmingham controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Birmingham.