QPR 0–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Birmingham

T. Chong 3'

3/18/2023

Championship · Round 38Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

QPR44%

×Draw27%

Birmingham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

QPR

1.34

Birmingham

1.04

QPR creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

QPR

1.31

Birmingham

0.96

allows per match

QPR

1.12

Birmingham

1.37

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

QPR+0.09on par

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw

71%

QPR or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

74%

QPR 2+ goals

39%

QPR 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

65%

Birmingham 2+ goals

28%

Birmingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

60%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Birmingham attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more

44%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

29%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

T. Chong

Birmingham · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

22'

46'

56'

61'

63'

72'

77'

S. Armstrong← R. Dickie

78'

John Ruddy

81'

Auston Trusty

82'

E. Dixon-Bonner← J. Lowe

86'

90+7'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRBirmingham

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots10

10Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target6

6Off Target1

8Blocked3

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

331Total Passes237

203Accurate Passes135

61%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Match Recap: QPR vs Birmingham

Birmingham beat QPR 1-0 in Championship on March 18, 2023.

Goals: T. Chong (3').

QPR controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.

QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: QPR vs Birmingham