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Birmingham vs QPR — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
9/22/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham50%
×Draw27%
QPR23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.44
QPR
0.89

Birmingham creates 62% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 59 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Birmingham
0.99
QPR
1.26

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
77%
Birmingham or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
50%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
25%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham 2+ goals
42%
Birmingham 3+ goals
18%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
22%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
68%
QPR (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

QPR attack 0.78 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Birmingham scores more
50%
level
27%
QPR scores more
23%

Birmingham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
J. RuddyBirminghamBirmingham · G
8.0

Match Events

43'
O. Burke← K. Anderson
45'
Samuel Field
54'
Juninho Bacuna
61'
Paul Smyth
65'
A. Adomah← P. Smyth
67'
Dion Sanderson
71'
L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan
71'
S. Dembélé← K. Miyoshi
75'
C. Willock← S. Armstrong
90'
Jay Stansfield

Possession

54%Birmingham

Shots

12Birmingham

Pass accuracy

52%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamQPR
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots8
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.95
6Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots8
4On Target4
2Off Target3
6Blocked1
11Inside Box7
1Outside Box1
Passing
54%Possession46%
386Total Passes314
294Accurate Passes219
76%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Championship: Birmingham 0–0 QPR

Birmingham and QPR drew 0-0 in Championship on September 22, 2023.

Birmingham controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.