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QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
K. Morgan 90'
J. Dunne 40'
P. Roberts 90'
12/9/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw27%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.35
Birmingham
1.04

QPR creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 33 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
28%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Birmingham attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
29%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. SaitoQPRQPR · M
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
40'
J. Dunne↳ K. Saito
46'
T. Doyle← B. Osayi-Samuel
46'
K. Furuhashi← M. Ducksch
67'
K. Dembele← P. Smyth
68'
E. Cashin← J. Robinson
68'
L. Dykes← J. Stansfield
79'
K. Poku← K. Saito
80'
Seung-Ho Paik
82'
K. Anderson← P. Neumann
86'
K. Morgan← A. S. Mbengue
90+7'
Kieran Morgan
90'
P. Roberts↳ D. Gray
90'
K. Morgan↳ J. Varane

Possession

38%QPR

Shots

16QPR

Pass accuracy

48%QPR

Statistics

QPRBirmingham
Overview
38%Possession62%
16Total Shots3
1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.31
6Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots3
3On Target1
7Off Target0
6Blocked2
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box0
Passing
38%Possession62%
256Total Passes450
189Accurate Passes360
74%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76
Discipline
11Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: QPR vs Birmingham

QPR beat Birmingham 2-1 in Championship on December 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Dunne (40'), P. Roberts (90'), K. Morgan (90').

Birmingham controlled possession (62%) and registered 3 shots to 16.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.