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QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Dunne 90+2'
S. Cook 65'
J. Bacuna 62'
3/29/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw27%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.34
Birmingham
1.04

QPR creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 33 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
28%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Birmingham attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
29%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. DunneQPRQPR · D
8.2

Match Events

47'
Ethan Laird
51'
Tyler Roberts
58'
Isaac Hayden
59'
S. Armstrong← M. Frey
60'
J. Colback← I. Hayden
62'
J. Bacuna↳ E. Laird
65'
S. Cook
73'
K. Miyoshi← T. Roberts
74'
Jack Colback
76'
P. Smyth← C. Willock
84'
S. Hogan← J. Stansfield
85'
J. James← J. Bacuna
87'
Z. Larkeche← K. Paal
90+1'
G. Gardner← K. Bielik
90+2'
J. Dunne

Possession

55%QPR

Shots

18QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRBirmingham
Overview
55%Possession45%
18Total Shots13
1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.92
6Corners2
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots13
6On Target3
6Off Target5
6Blocked5
13Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
433Total Passes354
347Accurate Passes260
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: QPR vs Birmingham

QPR beat Birmingham 2-1 in Championship on March 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Bacuna (62'), S. Cook (65'), J. Dunne (90+2').

QPR controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.