QPR 2–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham

I. Chair 64', 34'

9/28/2021

Championship · Round 10Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

QPR43%

×Draw28%

Birmingham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

QPR

1.29

Birmingham

1.02

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.09

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

QPR

1.29

Birmingham

0.96

allows per match

QPR

1.09

Birmingham

1.30

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

QPR+0.09on par

Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw

71%

QPR or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

19%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

72%

QPR 2+ goals

37%

QPR 3+ goals

14%

Birmingham 1+ goals

64%

Birmingham 2+ goals

27%

Birmingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

59%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.29 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more

43%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Chair

QPR · F

9.2

Match Events

34'

I. Chair↳ M. Odubajo

54'

Andre Dozzell

56'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney

63'

L. Amos← A. Dozzell

64'

I. Chair↳ L. Dykes

71'

R. McGree← M. Roberts

71'

72'

72'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRBirmingham

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots13

1Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots13

5On Target0

5Off Target9

2Blocked4

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

426Total Passes374

329Accurate Passes274

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Championship: QPR 2–0 Birmingham

QPR beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on September 28, 2021.

Goals: I. Chair (34', 64').

QPR controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.

QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: QPR 2–0 Birmingham