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QPR vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
J. Hugill 55'
M. Pugh 51'
S. Hogan 81', 24'
2/29/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw28%
Birmingham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.29
Birmingham
1.02

QPR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 37 away

creates per match

QPR
1.28
Birmingham
0.96

allows per match

QPR
1.08
Birmingham
1.30

finishing

QPR+0.11scores more
Birmingham-0.18scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
72%
QPR 2+ goals
37%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
64%
Birmingham 2+ goals
27%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
59%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.28 + Birmingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Birmingham attack 0.96 + QPR defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. ColinBirminghamBirmingham · D
7.6

Match Events

24'
S. Hogan↳ M. Colin
51'
M. Pugh↳ J. Hugill
55'
J. Hugill↳ B. Osayi-Samuel
73'
J. Montero← Jérémie Bela
74'
I. Chair← M. Pugh
81'
S. Hogan↳ G. Gardner
83'
M. Kieftenbeld← D. Crowley

Possession

65%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

57%QPR

Statistics

QPRBirmingham
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots12
6Corners3
6Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots12
6On Target4
5Off Target6
3Blocked2
12Inside Box9
2Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
537Total Passes276
451Accurate Passes177
84%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls16
2Offsides4

Match Recap: QPR vs Birmingham

QPR and Birmingham drew 2-2 in Championship on February 29, 2020.

Goals: S. Hogan (24', 81'), M. Pugh (51'), J. Hugill (55').

QPR controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.