Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
10/4/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 11Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice41%
×Draw25%
GKS Katowice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.54
GKS Katowice
1.40

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
GKS Katowice
1.32

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
GKS Katowice
1.62

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
65%
Puszcza Niepołomice or GKS Katowice
75%
Draw or GKS Katowice
59%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
20%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
79%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
45%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
20%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
75%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
41%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
54%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.47 + GKS Katowice defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

GKS Katowice attack 1.32 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
41%
level
25%
GKS Katowice scores more
35%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Puszcza Niepołomice 0–6 GKS Katowice

GKS Katowice beat Puszcza Niepołomice 6-0 in Ekstraklasa on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.