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GKS Katowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
CANC
13:00
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

GKS Katowice65%
×Draw19%
Puszcza Niepołomice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
2.27
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.03

GKS Katowice creates 120% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
2.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.23

allows per match

GKS Katowice
0.83
Puszcza Niepołomice
2.38

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
84%
GKS Katowice or Puszcza Niepołomice
81%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
35%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
42%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
90%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
66%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
39%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
64%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
28%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
80%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 2.17 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.27

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.23 + GKS Katowice defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
65%
level
19%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
16%

GKS Katowice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GKS Katowice face Puszcza Niepołomice (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with GKS Katowice hosting Puszcza Niepołomice. Match starts January 13, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

GKS Katowice host Puszcza Niepołomice at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.