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Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
10/15/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice36%
×Draw28%
GKS Katowice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20
GKS Katowice
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
GKS Katowice
1.26

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
GKS Katowice
1.22

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
64%
Puszcza Niepołomice or GKS Katowice
72%
Draw or GKS Katowice
64%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
15%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
70%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
34%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
12%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
70%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
34%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
50%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

GKS Katowice attack 1.26 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
36%
level
28%
GKS Katowice scores more
36%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs GKS Katowice

Puszcza Niepołomice and GKS Katowice drew 1-1 in I Liga on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.