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GKS Katowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
5/13/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 31Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

GKS Katowice42%
×Draw26%
Puszcza Niepołomice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.42
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.21

GKS Katowice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.49
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.22
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
68%
GKS Katowice or Puszcza Niepołomice
74%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
58%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
20%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
76%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
41%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
17%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
70%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
34%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
57%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.49 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + GKS Katowice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
42%
level
26%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
32%

GKS Katowice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GKS Katowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice

GKS Katowice and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 2-2 in I Liga on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.