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GKS Katowice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Ekstraklasa 2018

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
4/12/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 28Arena Katowice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

GKS Katowice56%
×Draw24%
Puszcza Niepołomice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.72
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.93

GKS Katowice creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.62
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.76

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.09
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.82

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
80%
GKS Katowice or Puszcza Niepołomice
76%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
44%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
31%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
82%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
51%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
25%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
61%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
24%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
73%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.62 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + GKS Katowice defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
56%
level
24%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
20%

GKS Katowice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: GKS Katowice 3–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

GKS Katowice beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Katowice in Katowice.