Preston 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

M. Osmajic 85'

A. Devine 7'

J. Monga 67'

8/16/2025

Championship · Round 2Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Preston31%

×Draw26%

Leicester43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.41

Preston

1.16

Leicester

1.41

Leicester creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

0.97

creates per match

1.45

1.37

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Preston

0.97

Leicester

1.45

allows per match

Preston

1.37

Leicester

1.34

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.32scores more

Leicester-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Preston or draw

57%

Preston or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

69%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

13%

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

42%

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.37 · 21 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.97 + Leicester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Leicester attack 1.45 + Preston defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preston scores more

31%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

43%

Leicester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

P. Valentin

Preston · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

A. Devine↳ P. Valentin

46'

P. Daka← B. El Khannouss

57'

W. Faes← L. Thomas

57'

J. Monga← S. Mavididi

67'

J. Monga↳ W. Faes

73'

O. Offiah← P. Valentin

73'

S. T. Thordarson← A. Devine

74'

Jordan Storey

77'

H. Choudhury← J. Justin

85'

Milutin Osmajić

85'

M. Osmajic↳ T. Small

86'

A. Vukcevic← T. Small

86'

K. McAteer← I. Fatawu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonLeicester

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots14

2.48Expected Goals (xG)0.92

6Corners4

11Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked8

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

267Total Passes417

191Accurate Passes357

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.09Goals Prevented0.09

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0