Preston 0–3 Leicester: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

K. McAteer 67'

J. Vardy 52', 36'

4/29/2024

Championship · Round 45Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Preston31%

×Draw27%

Leicester42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.38

Preston

1.15

Leicester

1.38

Leicester creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

1.04

creates per match

1.47

1.28

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Preston

1.04

Leicester

1.47

allows per match

Preston

1.28

Leicester

1.25

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Preston+0.14scores more

Leicester-0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

58%

Preston or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

69%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

13%

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

32%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

43%

Leicester (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.04 + Leicester defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Leicester attack 1.47 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preston scores more

31%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

42%

Leicester at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Fatawu

Leicester · F

8.5

Match Events

36'

46'

52'

54'

62'

67'

K. McAteer↳ A. Fatawu

68'

E. Riis← M. Osmajić

70'

S. Mavididi← K. McAteer

70'

H. Choudhury← W. Ndidi

75'

K. Dewsbury-Hall← Y. Akgün

75'

T. Cannon← J. Vardy

80'

D. Holmes← R. Ledson

84'

J. Justin← A. Fatawu

86'

L. Stewart← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

86'

N. Mawene← A. Browne

86'

T. Mawene← W. Keane

90+1'

Duane Holmes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonLeicester

Overview

33%Possession67%

5Total Shots19

0.36Expected Goals (xG)3.49

1Corners5

9Fouls7

Shots

5Total Shots19

1On Target11

3Off Target7

1Blocked1

2Inside Box13

3Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

332Total Passes678

256Accurate Passes604

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls7

4Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1

Championship: Preston 0–3 Leicester

Leicester beat Preston 3-0 in Championship on April 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Vardy (36', 52'), K. McAteer (67').

Leicester controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Leicester — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Preston 0–3 Leicester