Leicester 3–0 Preston: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

K. Dewsbury-Hall 90', 60'

K. Ịheanachọ 76'

10/4/2023

Championship · Round 10King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Leicester44%

×Draw27%

Preston29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

Leicester

1.39

Preston

1.09

Leicester creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 38 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.19

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Leicester

1.20

Preston

1.00

allows per match

Leicester

1.19

Preston

1.58

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Leicester+0.68scores more

Preston+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

71%

Leicester or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

56%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

21%

Preston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Preston 1+ goals

66%

Preston 2+ goals

30%

Preston 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

60%

Preston (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.20 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Preston attack 1.00 + Leicester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leicester scores more

44%

level

27%

Preston scores more

29%

Leicester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Leicester · M

9.5

Match Events

60'

K. Dewsbury-Hall

62'

K. Ịheanachọ← J. Vardy

62'

Y. Akgün← S. Mavididi

66'

W. Keane← M. Osmajić

76'

K. Ịheanachọ↳ W. Ndidi

77'

K. Best← R. Brady

78'

N. Mawene← A. McCann

78'

B. Woodburn← D. Holmes

79'

H. Choudhury← J. Justin

82'

Ben Woodburn

84'

L. Stewart← L. Millar

86'

Layton Stewart

87'

C. Casadei← W. Ndidi

88'

M. Albrighton← A. Fatawu

90'

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterPreston

Overview

76%Possession24%

9Total Shots6

1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.43

4Corners4

3Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots6

4On Target1

4Off Target2

1Blocked3

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

76%Possession24%

785Total Passes233

714Accurate Passes161

91%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

3Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Leicester vs Preston

Leicester beat Preston 3-0 in Championship on October 4, 2023.

Goals: K. Dewsbury-Hall (60', 90'), K. Ịheanachọ (76').

Leicester controlled possession (76%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Preston — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leicester vs Preston