Leicester 2–2 Preston: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Preston

P. Daka 81', 4'

B. Whiteman 45'

A. Moran 38'

4/3/2026

Championship · Round 40King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Leicester48%

×Draw26%

Preston26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.06

Leicester

1.53

Preston

1.06

Leicester creates 44% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 59 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Leicester

1.47

Preston

1.00

allows per match

Leicester

1.13

Preston

1.59

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.24scores more

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

74%

Leicester or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

52%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

Preston 1+ goals

65%

Preston 2+ goals

29%

Preston 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

65%

Preston (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.47 + Preston defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Preston attack 1.00 + Leicester defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leicester scores more

48%

level

26%

Preston scores more

26%

Leicester at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Daka

Leicester · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

15'

21'

38'

45'

B. Whiteman↳ A. Devine

57'

Liam Lindsay

64'

Jordan Storey

67'

B. Potts← A. Moran

67'

L. Gibson← L. Lindsay

67'

D. Jebbison← M. Osmajic

74'

B. Nelson← J. Lascelles

75'

B. De Cordova-Reid← O. Skipp

80'

M. Smith← L. Dobbin

81'

P. Daka

85'

A. Vukcevic← T. Small

88'

J. Ayew← P. Daka

88'

J. Monga← S. Mavididi

90+4'

J. Vestergaard← D. Mukasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterPreston

Overview

59%Possession41%

28Total Shots8

2.01Expected Goals (xG)0.41

7Corners2

4Fouls12

Shots

28Total Shots8

10On Target3

13Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box5

19Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

432Total Passes296

350Accurate Passes199

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

4Fouls12

0Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Championship: Leicester 2–2 Preston

Leicester and Preston drew 2-2 in Championship on April 3, 2026.

Goals: P. Daka (4', 81'), A. Moran (38'), B. Whiteman (45').

Leicester controlled possession (59%) and registered 28 shots to 8.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.

Leicester vs Preston — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Leicester 2–2 Preston