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Preston vs Leicester — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leicester
Leicester
A. McCann 49'
H. Barnes 18'
J. Vardy 12'
7/23/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Preston25%
×Draw24%
Leicester52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.13
Leicester
1.75

Leicester creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Preston
1.50
Leicester
2.00

allows per match

Preston
1.50
Leicester
0.75

finishing

Preston+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Preston or draw
48%
Preston or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
75%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
9%
Leicester wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
68%
Preston 2+ goals
31%
Preston 3+ goals
11%
Leicester 1+ goals
83%
Leicester 2+ goals
52%
Leicester 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
32%
Leicester (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Leicester away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.50 + Leicester defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Leicester attack 2.00 + Preston defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Preston scores more
25%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
52%

Leicester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Vardy
16'
R. Ledson
18'
H. Barnes
49'
A. McCann
59'
J. Storey
70'
B. Whiteman
80'
W. Fofana
82'
J. Evans

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preston vs Leicester

Leicester beat Preston 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Vardy (12'), H. Barnes (18'), A. McCann (49').

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.