Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Port Vale vs Bolton — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
G. Hall 34'
3/21/2026League OneLeague One · Round 39Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Port Vale38%
×Draw29%
Bolton33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.17
Bolton
1.06

Port Vale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.93
Bolton
0.90

allows per match

Port Vale
1.22
Bolton
1.40

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
67%
Port Vale or Bolton
71%
Draw or Bolton
62%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
16%
Bolton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
69%
Port Vale 2+ goals
33%
Port Vale 3+ goals
11%
Bolton 1+ goals
65%
Bolton 2+ goals
29%
Bolton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%
Bolton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.93 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bolton attack 0.90 + Port Vale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more
38%
level
29%
Bolton scores more
33%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
G. HallPort ValePort Vale · M
8.7

Match Events

21'
Jordi Osei-Tutu
34'
G. Hall↳ J. Headley
46'
M. Conway← R. Apter
60'
Ethan Erhahon
61'
J. Sheehan← E. Erhahon
61'
J. McAtee← X. Simons
69'
B. Waine← B. Garrity
74'
C. Christie← E. Toal
74'
M. Burstow← J. Osei-Tutu
78'
J. Shipley← M. Sherif
84'
E. Archer← G. Hall
85'
T. Magloire← J. Headley

Possession

40%Port

Shots

11Port

Pass accuracy

45%Port

Statistics

PortBolton
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots8
1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.41
2Corners5
12Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots8
2On Target2
5Off Target3
4Blocked3
8Inside Box3
3Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
255Total Passes374
137Accurate Passes244
54%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Bolton

Port Vale beat Bolton 1-0 in League One on March 21, 2026.

Goals: G. Hall (34').

Bolton controlled possession (60%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke on Trent.