Bolton 0–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League #46

Bolton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

B. Waine 90'

1/13/2026

League #46 · Round of 16Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bolton32%

×Draw30%

Port Vale38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.09

Bolton

0.98

Port Vale

1.09

Port Vale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.86

0.33

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Bolton

1.67

Port Vale

1.86

allows per match

Bolton

0.33

Port Vale

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

62%

Bolton or Port Vale

70%

Draw or Port Vale

68%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

12%

Port Vale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

62%

Bolton 2+ goals

26%

Bolton 3+ goals

8%

Port Vale 1+ goals

66%

Port Vale 2+ goals

30%

Port Vale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

46%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.67 + Port Vale defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Port Vale attack 1.86 + Bolton defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more

32%

level

30%

Port Vale scores more

38%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Waine

Port Vale · F

7.6

Match Events

31'

Marcus Forss

38'

Chris Forino

46'

M. Clark← J. Lawrence-Gabriel

46'

L. Gordon← J. Headley

46'

B. Heneghan← C. Humphreys

61'

B. Waine← M. Faal

64'

K. Dempsey← J. Sheehan

64'

J. McAtee← M. Forss

64'

M. Burstow← S. Dalby

68'

Cyrus Christie

76'

A. Cozier-Duberry← J. Dacres-Cogley

81'

G. Hall← R. Paton

82'

E. Erhahon← X. Simons

90+6'

Thierry Gale

90+4'

Ryan Croasdale

90'

B. Waine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonPort

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots11

6Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked4

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

468Total Passes433

407Accurate Passes353

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2