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Port Vale vs Bolton — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bolton
Bolton
D. Charles 75'
V. Adeboyejo 29'
A. Collins 2'
8/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale22%
×Draw20%
Bolton58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.35
Bolton
2.27

Bolton creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Port Vale
2.00
Bolton
3.29

allows per match

Port Vale
1.25
Bolton
0.71

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
42%
Port Vale or Bolton
80%
Draw or Bolton
78%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
9%
Bolton wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%
Bolton 1+ goals
90%
Bolton 2+ goals
66%
Bolton 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
28%
Bolton (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Bolton away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 2.00 + Bolton defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bolton attack 3.29 + Port Vale defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Port Vale scores more
22%
level
20%
Bolton scores more
58%

Bolton at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Collins
29'
V. Adeboyejo
61'
J. Sheehan← A. Morley
61'
V. Adeboyejo← D. Charles
61'
S. Schon← M. Conway
61'
S. Arfield← K. Lolos
61'
R. Croasdale← J. Debrah
62'
B. Heneghan← F. Ojo
67'
J. Iredale← G. Johnston
67'
A. Collins← D. N'Lundulu
67'
M. Conway
70'
C. Hall← J. Lowe
70'
D. Jones← D. Jones
75'
D. Charles
80'
J. Lowe
82'
J. Dacres-Cogley← L. Matheson
84'
R. Curtis← A. Buah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Bolton

Bolton beat Port Vale 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 3, 2024.

Goals: A. Collins (2'), V. Adeboyejo (29'), D. Charles (75').

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.