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Bolton vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Bolton
Bolton
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
K. Dempsey 72'
A. Cozier-Duberry 68', 31'
X. Simons 36'
11/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 15Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bolton59%
×Draw24%
Port Vale17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.70
Port Vale
0.80

Bolton creates 113% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.78
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Bolton
0.88
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
83%
Bolton or Port Vale
76%
Draw or Port Vale
41%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
33%
Port Vale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
82%
Bolton 2+ goals
51%
Bolton 3+ goals
24%
Port Vale 1+ goals
55%
Port Vale 2+ goals
19%
Port Vale 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
77%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.78 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Bolton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bolton scores more
59%
level
24%
Port Vale scores more
17%

Bolton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
A. Cozier-DuberryBoltonBolton · M
10.0

Match Events

31'
A. Cozier-Duberry↳ M. Burstow
36'
X. Simons↳ A. Cozier-Duberry
46'
R. Curtis← G. Byers
46'
G. Hall← J. Headley
54'
Ibrahim Cissoko
61'
J. Osei-Tutu← I. Cissoko
61'
A. Morley← J. Randall
61'
K. Dempsey← X. Simons
65'
R. Paton← Kyle John
65'
R. Croasdale← R. Walters
68'
A. Cozier-Duberry↳ M. Burstow
72'
K. Dempsey↳ A. Cozier-Duberry
75'
S. Dalby← M. Burstow
79'
M. Forss← A. Cozier-Duberry
80'
Cameron Humphreys
90+1'
Ruari Paton

Possession

66%Bolton

Shots

15Bolton

Pass accuracy

55%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonPort
Overview
66%Possession34%
15Total Shots8
1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.11
7Corners5
6Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots8
10On Target4
3Off Target3
2Blocked1
12Inside Box8
3Outside Box0
Passing
66%Possession34%
603Total Passes299
520Accurate Passes212
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League One: Bolton 4–0 Port Vale

Bolton beat Port Vale 4-0 in League One on November 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Cozier-Duberry (31', 68'), X. Simons (36'), K. Dempsey (72').

Bolton controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.