Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolton vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
C. Jerome 90+3'
A. Collins 72'
4/20/2024League OneLeague One · Round 45Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bolton59%
×Draw24%
Port Vale17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.70
Port Vale
0.78

Bolton creates 118% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.79
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Bolton
0.85
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
83%
Bolton or Port Vale
76%
Draw or Port Vale
41%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
33%
Port Vale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
82%
Bolton 2+ goals
51%
Bolton 3+ goals
24%
Port Vale 1+ goals
54%
Port Vale 2+ goals
18%
Port Vale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
78%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.79 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Bolton defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bolton scores more
59%
level
24%
Port Vale scores more
17%

Bolton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
P. MaghomaBoltonBolton · M
7.9

Match Events

30'
J. Shorrock← C. Grant
46'
R. Loft← U. Ikpeazu
65'
B. Dipepa← R. Walters
70'
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
70'
Dion Charles
70'
Ben Garrity
70'
K. Dempsey← G. Thomason
72'
A. Collins↳ R. Williams
77'
J. Weir← A. Iacovitti
79'
Eoin Toal
80'
D. Nlundulu← D. Charles
86'
A. Morley← J. Sheehan
86'
C. Jerome← A. Collins
90+3'
C. Jerome↳ P. Maghoma

Possession

72%Bolton

Shots

27Bolton

Pass accuracy

58%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonPort
Overview
72%Possession28%
27Total Shots9
6Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
27Total Shots9
7On Target3
13Off Target4
7Blocked2
17Inside Box5
10Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
550Total Passes212
461Accurate Passes131
84%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
5Offsides3

Match Recap: Bolton vs Port Vale

Bolton beat Port Vale 2-0 in League One on April 20, 2024.

Goals: A. Collins (72'), C. Jerome (90+3').

Bolton controlled possession (72%) and registered 27 shots to 9.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.