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Platense vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
R. Contreras 90+3'
G. Bergessio 51' (pen)
2/20/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense48%
×Draw32%
Sarmiento Junin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.14
Sarmiento Junin
0.64

Platense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Sarmiento Junin
0.60

allows per match

Platense
0.68
Sarmiento Junin
1.26

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less
Sarmiento Junin+0.17scores more

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Sarmiento Junin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw
79%
Platense or Sarmiento Junin
68%
Draw or Sarmiento Junin
52%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
21%
Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
68%
Platense 2+ goals
32%
Platense 3+ goals
11%
Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
47%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
14%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
70%
Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Platense scores more
48%
level
32%
Sarmiento Junin scores more
21%

Platense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. De OliveraPlatensePlatense · G
8.7

Match Events

31'
Lautaro Montoya
34'
Facundo Cardozo
46'
L. Gondou← Y. Arismendi
46'
F. Castet← L. Montoya
51'
G. BergessioPenalty
57'
L. López← J. Chicco
58'
Federico Andueza
63'
Emiliano Méndez
70'
F. Russo← I. Schor
70'
H. Canteros← N. Bertolo
76'
J. Rosso← G. Bettini
76'
F. Vismara← E. Méndez
82'
M. Bogado← F. Baldassarra
86'
R. Contreras← G. Bergessio
87'
F. González← H. Tijanovich
90+3'
R. Contreras↳ F. Russo

Possession

42%Platense

Shots

19Platense

Pass accuracy

50%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseSarmiento
Overview
42%Possession58%
19Total Shots18
5Corners7
12Fouls25
Shots
19Total Shots18
6On Target6
10Off Target6
3Blocked6
11Inside Box7
8Outside Box11
Passing
42%Possession58%
264Total Passes362
189Accurate Passes264
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls25
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 2–0 Sarmiento Junin

Platense beat Sarmiento Junin 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 20, 2022.

Goals: G. Bergessio (51' pen), R. Contreras (90+3').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.