Platense 1–1 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sarmiento Junin

H. Lamberti 35'

G. Alanís 8'

3/10/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense48%

×Draw32%

Sarmiento Junin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.64

Platense

1.14

Sarmiento Junin

0.64

Platense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

0.60

0.68

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

allows per match

Platense

0.68

Sarmiento Junin

1.26

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Platense-0.36scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw

79%

Platense or Sarmiento Junin

68%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

52%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

21%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

47%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

14%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

70%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Platense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Platense scores more

48%

level

32%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

21%

Platense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Bogado

Platense · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

G. Alanís↳ J. Torres

19'

Nahuel Iribarren

35'

H. Lamberti↳ N. Zeineddin

39'

Federico Vismara

46'

E. Montaño← S. Quiroga

46'

F. Bravo← F. Vismara

58'

Y. Arismendi← G. Alanís

66'

F. Curuchet← N. Zeineddin

67'

P. Gerzel← J. Sinisterra

73'

S. Rincón← G. Graciani

76'

F. Montero← F. Vázquez

82'

R. Bochi← M. Bogado

82'

F. Ilarregui← T. Palacios

83'

Luciano Recalde

83'

Sebastián Rincón

87'

Facundo Castet

88'

I. Puleio← M. Tissera

90+3'

Roberto Bochi

90+1'

Luciano Recalde

90+1'

Luciano Recalde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseSarmiento

Overview

54%Possession46%

26Total Shots12

14Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots12

6On Target3

11Off Target7

9Blocked2

14Inside Box7

12Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

406Total Passes346

286Accurate Passes224

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Platense vs Sarmiento Junin

Platense and Sarmiento Junin drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 10, 2021.

Goals: G. Alanís (8'), H. Lamberti (35').

Platense controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Platense vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Platense vs Sarmiento Junin