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Peterborough vs Lincoln — League One 2020

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
K. Poku 65'
B. House 33'
9/14/2024League OneLeague One · Round 6Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Peterborough42%
×Draw25%
Lincoln34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.53
Lincoln
1.35

Peterborough creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 49 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.91
Lincoln
1.37

allows per match

Peterborough
1.34
Lincoln
1.16

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
66%
Peterborough or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
58%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
20%
Lincoln wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
78%
Peterborough 2+ goals
45%
Peterborough 3+ goals
20%
Lincoln 1+ goals
74%
Lincoln 2+ goals
39%
Lincoln 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
55%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.34 · 56 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Lincoln defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lincoln attack 1.37 + Peterborough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more
42%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
34%

Peterborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. HouseLincolnLincoln · F
7.9

Match Events

33'
B. House↳ D. Jefferies
44'
Archie Collins
52'
Tendayi Darikwa
58'
B. Cadamarteri← J. Makama
58'
J. Moylan← T. Bayliss
58'
E. Ring← D. Jefferies
59'
B. Ihionvien← R. Jones
59'
C. Conn-Clarke← J. Randall
59'
M. Mothersille← A. Odoh
59'
E. Fernandez← O. Wallin
60'
Sam Curtis
65'
K. Poku↳ A. Collins
75'
Z. Jeacock← G. Wickens
79'
F. Draper← B. House
86'
D. O'Brien-Brady← A. Collins
90+7'
Jack Sparkes

Possession

71%Peterborough

Shots

9Peterborough

Pass accuracy

56%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughLincoln
Overview
71%Possession29%
9Total Shots8
5Corners3
8Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots8
5On Target5
2Off Target3
2Blocked0
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
673Total Passes273
577Accurate Passes184
86%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Lincoln

Peterborough and Lincoln drew 1-1 in League One on September 14, 2024.

Goals: B. House (33'), K. Poku (65').

Peterborough controlled possession (71%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.