Lincoln 5–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Peterborough

J. Collins 82'

C. Hayes 66' (OG)

F. Draper 55' (pen)

T. Bayliss 33'

D. Jefferies 12'

R. Jones 60'

1/25/2025

League One · Round 28LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lincoln46%

×Draw23%

Peterborough31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.50

Lincoln

1.85

Peterborough

1.50

Lincoln creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

1.77

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Lincoln

1.76

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Lincoln

1.77

Peterborough

1.94

+0.84scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.84scores more

Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

69%

Lincoln or Peterborough

77%

Draw or Peterborough

54%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

84%

Lincoln 2+ goals

55%

Lincoln 3+ goals

28%

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

44%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

59%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.76 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Lincoln defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lincoln scores more

46%

level

23%

Peterborough scores more

31%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

D. Jefferies

Lincoln · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

33'

37'

39'

46'

Mahamadou Susoho← A. Collins

46'

R. Jones← M. Mothersille

46'

G. Nevett← C. Johnston

55'

F. DraperPenalty

56'

Ryan De Havilland

58'

C. Conn-Clarke← R. De Havilland

60'

R. Jones↳ G. Lindgren

62'

Mahamadou Susoho

65'

E. Hamilton← T. Bayliss

65'

J. Collins← F. Draper

66'

C. HayesOwn goal

73'

Paudie O’Connor

76'

D. O'Brien-Brady← E. Fernandez

80'

J. Makama← B. House

80'

R. Hackett← D. Jefferies

82'

J. Collins↳ J. Makama

85'

L. Montsma← P. OConnor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnPeterborough

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots9

2Corners2

14Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked4

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

334Total Passes529

240Accurate Passes441

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Peterborough

Lincoln beat Peterborough 5-1 in League One on January 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Jefferies (12'), T. Bayliss (33'), F. Draper (55' pen), R. Jones (60'), C. Hayes (66' o.g.), J. Collins (82').

Peterborough controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.

Lincoln vs Peterborough — League One 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Peterborough