Lincoln 5–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Peterborough

T. Darikwa 90', 45'

A. Reach 57'

F. Draper 45'

R. Hackett-Fairchild 33'

K. Lisbie 56'

H. Leonard 24'

1/4/2026

League One · Round 25LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lincoln56%

×Draw23%

Peterborough22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.08

Lincoln

1.87

Peterborough

1.08

Lincoln creates 73% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

2.19

creates per match

1.32

0.85

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Lincoln

2.19

Peterborough

1.32

allows per match

Lincoln

0.85

Peterborough

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

78%

Lincoln or Peterborough

77%

Draw or Peterborough

44%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

32%

Peterborough wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

85%

Lincoln 2+ goals

56%

Lincoln 3+ goals

29%

Peterborough 1+ goals

66%

Peterborough 2+ goals

29%

Peterborough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

72%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.19 + Peterborough defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.87

Peterborough attack 1.32 + Lincoln defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lincoln scores more

56%

level

23%

Peterborough scores more

22%

Lincoln at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

T. Darikwa

Lincoln · M

10.0

Match Events

24'

H. Leonard↳ K. Lisbie

33'

R. Hackett-Fairchild↳ T. Darikwa

36'

Archie Collins

45'

F. Draper

45'

T. Darikwa↳ R. Hackett-Fairchild

56'

K. Lisbie↳ B. Khela

57'

A. Reach↳ R. Hackett-Fairchild

60'

O. Aderoju← D. Frith

61'

Kyrell Lisbie

65'

D. Jefferies← I. Varfolomeev

65'

J. Obikwu← F. Draper

70'

Ryley Towler

74'

C. Hayes← B. Khela

74'

D. O'Brien-Brady← M. Garbett

79'

E. Ring← A. Reach

83'

86'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnPeterborough

Overview

33%Possession67%

17Total Shots13

2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.44

6Corners7

17Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots13

8On Target3

5Off Target4

4Blocked6

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

240Total Passes497

151Accurate Passes406

63%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0