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Peterborough vs Lincoln — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
J. Obikwu 86'
T. Darikwa 60'
A. Reach 14'
9/27/2025League OneLeague One · Round 10Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough33%
×Draw25%
Lincoln42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.29
Lincoln
1.48

Lincoln creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 26 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.63
Lincoln
1.54

allows per match

Peterborough
1.43
Lincoln
0.96

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
58%
Peterborough or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
67%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%
Lincoln 1+ goals
77%
Lincoln 2+ goals
43%
Lincoln 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
44%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + Lincoln defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lincoln attack 1.54 + Peterborough defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more
33%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
42%

Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. ReachLincolnLincoln · D
8.7

Match Events

14'
A. Reach
54'
R. Towler← F. Draper
54'
T. Hamer← A. Jackson
60'
T. Darikwa↳ A. Reach
65'
B. Woods← B. Khela
65'
A. Odoh← T. Lees
71'
D. Okagbue← A. Collins
71'
G. Lindgren← J. Morgan
71'
J. Obikwu← R. Street
74'
Tendayi Darikwa
76'
Conor McGrandles
79'
R. Hackett-Fairchild← J. Collins
79'
I. Varfolomeev← T. Bayliss
84'
K. Lolos← J. Mendy
86'
J. Obikwu↳ T. Hamer

Possession

64%Peterborough

Shots

9Peterborough

Pass accuracy

54%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughLincoln
Overview
64%Possession36%
9Total Shots7
1Corners0
10Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots7
0On Target5
4Off Target1
5Blocked1
6Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
611Total Passes341
516Accurate Passes250
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League One: Peterborough 0–3 Lincoln

Lincoln beat Peterborough 3-0 in League One on September 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Reach (14'), T. Darikwa (60'), J. Obikwu (86').

Peterborough controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.