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Lincoln vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
1/27/2024League OneLeague One · Round 30LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lincoln46%
×Draw23%
Peterborough31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.85
Peterborough
1.50

Lincoln creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.76
Peterborough
1.24

allows per match

Lincoln
1.77
Peterborough
1.94

finishing

Lincoln+0.84scores more
Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
69%
Lincoln or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
54%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
25%
Peterborough wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
84%
Lincoln 2+ goals
55%
Lincoln 3+ goals
28%
Peterborough 1+ goals
78%
Peterborough 2+ goals
44%
Peterborough 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
59%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.77 · 5 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.76 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Lincoln defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lincoln scores more
46%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
31%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. EdwardsPeterboroughPeterborough · D
7.7

Match Events

21'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
66'
J. Clarke-Harris← D. Ajiboye
66'
R. De Havilland← J. Randall
67'
D. Mândroiu← E. Bishop
68'
J. Moylan← J. Taylor
81'
J. Makama← F. Draper
86'
M. Mothersille← R. Jones
90+4'
Harrison Burrows
90+3'
J. Burroughs← R. Hackett

Possession

29%Lincoln

Shots

12Lincoln

Pass accuracy

45%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnPeterborough
Overview
29%Possession71%
12Total Shots7
3Corners6
11Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots7
3On Target3
5Off Target3
4Blocked1
6Inside Box2
6Outside Box5
Passing
29%Possession71%
262Total Passes634
181Accurate Passes542
69%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 0–0 Peterborough

Lincoln and Peterborough drew 0-0 in League One on January 27, 2024.

Peterborough controlled possession (71%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.