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Peterborough vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
J. Randall 83'
D. Ajiboye 52'
10/7/2023League OneLeague One · Round 12Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Peterborough40%
×Draw25%
Lincoln36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.52
Lincoln
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.91
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Peterborough
1.51
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
64%
Peterborough or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
60%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
19%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
78%
Peterborough 2+ goals
45%
Peterborough 3+ goals
20%
Lincoln 1+ goals
76%
Lincoln 2+ goals
42%
Lincoln 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
52%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peterborough scores more
40%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
36%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. EdwardsPeterboroughPeterborough · D
7.9

Match Events

43'
D. Ajiboye← K. Poku
45'
Sean Roughan
52'
D. Ajiboye↳ E. Mason-Clark
57'
Daniel Mandroiu
67'
O. Shodipo← D. Mândroiu
67'
E. Bishop← H. Adelakun
71'
J. Brown← S. Roughan
83'
J. Randall
87'
D. Duffy← A. Mitchell
88'
R. De Havilland← J. Randall
88'
R. Jones← E. Mason-Clark
90+3'
David Ajiboye

Possession

63%Peterborough

Shots

13Peterborough

Pass accuracy

54%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughLincoln
Overview
63%Possession37%
13Total Shots12
6Corners4
10Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots12
5On Target0
4Off Target6
4Blocked6
10Inside Box8
3Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
511Total Passes311
406Accurate Passes204
79%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League One: Peterborough 2–0 Lincoln

Peterborough beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on October 7, 2023.

Goals: D. Ajiboye (52'), J. Randall (83').

Peterborough controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.