Peterborough 3–3 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Lincoln

J. Clarke-Harris 90+6' (pen), 75'

S. Dembélé 65'

A. Scully 53', 31'

J. Grant 45+2' (pen)

5/1/2021

League One · Round 45Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Peterborough40%

×Draw25%

Lincoln36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.44

Peterborough

1.52

Lincoln

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.91

creates per match

1.38

1.51

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Lincoln

1.13

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

64%

Peterborough or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

60%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Lincoln wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

45%

Peterborough 3+ goals

20%

Lincoln 1+ goals

76%

Lincoln 2+ goals

42%

Lincoln 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

52%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peterborough scores more

40%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

36%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Clarke-Harris

Peterborough · F

8.2

Match Events

31'

A. Scully↳ H. Anderson

45+2'

J. GrantPenalty

53'

A. Scully↳ J. Grant

55'

Jack Taylor

56'

Liam Bridcutt

60'

E. Hamilton← J. Taylor

64'

C. McGrandles← L. Bridcutt

65'

S. Dembélé↳ D. Butler

75'

80'

87'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

M. Eisa← R. Brown

90+6'

J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughLincoln

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots10

7Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target5

5Off Target5

6Blocked0

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

535Total Passes383

414Accurate Passes270

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1